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Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
1. There Is No Housing Bubble
Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.
Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.
2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop
Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.
Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.
3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly
Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.
4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One
With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.
5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic
We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.
6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)
The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.
7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase
Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.
Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.
8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal
Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.
9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue
In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.
Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.
10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously
Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.
But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.
About Matthew Gardner
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This article originally appeared on the Windermere blog November 14th, 2022. Written by: Matthew Gardner.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2023, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
What is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?
Securing the most advantageous financing for your situation is an integral part of the success formula of buying a home. After getting pre-approved but once you’ve found the home you’d like to pursue, one of your primary tasks is exploring different loan products to see which best fits your situation. This is the fork in the road where you’ll need to decide between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). The following information will help you gain a better understanding of ARMs to help you decide whether they’re right for you.
What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)?
After your down payment, your mortgage will finance the remainder of your home purchase. Whereas fixed-rate mortgages allow you to lock in a specific interest rate and payment for the life of your loan, adjustable-rate mortgages’ interest rates will fluctuate over time, thus changing your loan payment. It’s typical for ARMs to begin with a low introductory interest rate, but once that first stage of the loan has passed, they will begin to shift up and down. ARMs generally have a cap that specifies the maximum rate that can occur for that loan.
Let’s say you secure an adjustable-rate mortgage with 30-year terms, the first five of which are at a fixed rate. When the variable interest portion of the loan kicks in, your mortgage’s fluctuations will be measured against an index. If the index is higher than when you secured the loan, your rate and loan payment will go up—and vice versa. How often your ARM rates change depends on your agreement with your lender. Talk to your mortgage broker to learn more about the characteristics of adjustable-rate mortgages.
Pros and Cons of an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM)
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Different Types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
Hybrid ARM: As outlined above, a hybrid ARM begins with a fixed-rate introductory period followed by an adjustable-rate period. Typically, a hybrid ARM’s fixed-rate period lasts anywhere between three to 10 years, and its rates adjust at an agreed-upon frequency during the adjustable-rate period, such as once every six months or once a year.
Interest-Only ARM: With an interest-only ARM, you pay just the interest on the loan for a specified introductory period, then the principal payments kick in on top. The longer the introductory period, the higher your payments will be when the delayed principal payments enter the equation.
Payment-Option ARM: Not all states allow these loan products because they can get home buyers into hot water quickly if rates increase. They include flexibility to choose your monthly payments with a payment-option ARM, including interest-only payments and minimum payments that don’t cover interest.
Home Monthly Payment Calculator
To get an idea of how your mortgage payment will fit into your budget, use our free Home Monthly Payment Calculator by clicking the button below. With current rates based on national averages and customizable mortgage terms, you can experiment with different values to get an estimate of your monthly payment for any listing price.
Adapted from an article that originally appeared on the Windermere blog September 28, 2022. Written by: Sandy Dodge.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
2022 Holiday Happenings Around the Sound
As the days grow darker and rain settles in, a little holiday cheer couldn’t be better timed! Grab your umbrella and brighten your spirits with these Seattle-area favorites—whether it’s meandering through a dazzling light show, watching the “snow” fall at Bellevue’s Snowflake Lane, or taking a holiday-themed cruise. Here’s the skinny on dates, times, food, and parking…
Winterfest at Seattle Center
305 Harrison Street, Seattle, WA 98109
www.seattlecenter.com/winterfest
- Dates/Times: Nov. 25, 2022 – Dec. 31, 2022. Seattle Center Luminata with winter light & music display at International Fountain daily at 6pm; ice sculpting Nov. 27, Dec. 4, 11, & 18; Winter train & village open daily Nov. 25 – Dec. 31 | 10 am – 6 pm.
- Cost: Free for all ages.
- Parking: Paid parking available at the Mercer Garage, 5th Ave N Garage, and Theatre Commons ADA Lot. Click here for the campus map.
- Food: A multitude of dining options await you in the Armory.
- Special Events: Opening Day Celebration, live stage entertainment at the Armory, the Winter Train & Village, New Year’s Eve Celebration, and more!
- Holiday Closure: Dec. 25
Image courtesy of seattlecenter.com
Garden d’Lights at Bellevue Botanical Garden
12001 Main Street, Bellevue WA 98005
http://gardendlights.org
click here to get tickets (must be purchased in advance)
- Dates/Times: Open nightly Nov. 26, 2022 – Dec. 31, 2022 | 4:30 – 9:00 pm
- Cost: $8 per person (ages 10 and under are free)
- Parking: Premium parking is $5 per car in the Garden’s lot as space allows OR park for free at Wilburton Hill Park
- Food: Hot drinks and snacks are available for purchase
- Holiday Closures: December 25
Image courtesy of bellevuebotanical.org
Snowflake Lane at the Bellevue Collection
Bellevue Way & NE 8th Street, Bellevue WA 98004
http://snowflakelane.com/
- Dates/Times: Nightly Nov. 25, 2022 – Dec. 24, 2022 | 20 minute show starts at 7 pm
- Cost: Free for all ages
- Parking: Free parking at Bellevue Square, Bellevue Place and Lincoln Square
- Food: A variety of dining options (from happy hour, to kid fare, to gourmet) are all within walking distance
- Special Events & Activities: Ice Skating, Santa Photos
Image courtesy of snowflakelane.com
Christmas Ship Festival
Launch locations include Seattle Waterfront – Pier 55, Shilshole Bay Marina, Hyatt Regency Lake Washington, Lake Union Park (MOHAI), AGC Marina, Carillon Point Marina, and Kirkland City Dock.
www.argosycruises.com
click here to get tickets
- Dates/Times: Click here for the full schedule
- Cost: $40 – $72 per person (kids 3 and under are free)
- Parking: Varies by location – click here for details
- Food: Snacks and drinks available for purchase on the ship. Outside food/drinks are not allowed.
- Special Events: Opening Night, Parade of Boats, Grand Finale
Image courtesy of argosycruises.com
Westlake Center Tree Lighting & Holiday Activities
401 Pine St., Seattle, WA 98101 (Westlake Park)
https://downtownseattle.org/events/holidays/
https://downtownseattle.org/events/holidays
- Tree Lighting Celebration: Nov. 25 from 3-6 pm in Westlake Park.
- Holiday Lights & Delights: Nov. 25, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023 in Occidental Square.
- Saturday Family Fun: Nov. 26, 2022 – Dec. 17, 2022 in Westlake Park.
- Cookies, Cocoa & Carolers: Nov. 26, 2022 – Dec. 17, 2022 | 11-3 in Occidental Square.
- Festive Friday Concerts: Dec. 2, 9 & 16 | 4-6 pm in Westlake Park.
- Cost: Free for all ages
- Parking: Access the Republic Parking garage from Olive Way between 4th & 5th Ave, or check out this interactive map of city parking
Photo Courtesy of Downtown Seattle Association
Zoolights at Point Defiance Zoo & Aquarium
5400 N Pearl St, Tacoma, WA 98407
www.pdza.org/event/zoolights
click here to get tickets
- Dates/Times: Open nightly Nov. 25, 2022 – Jan. 2, 2023 | 4:30 – 10 pm
- Cost: $12-$16 (free for kids 2 & under)
- Promotions: Discounted tickets for zoo members & BECU members
- Parking: Free parking in zoo lots (carpooling recommended)
- Food: Dinner, drinks & snacks are available at the Plaza Cafe & outside stands
- Activities: Carousel, Kids’ Zone with meerkats & goats
- Holiday Closures: Dec. 24 & 25
Image courtesy of https://www.pdza.org
WildLanterns at Woodland Park Zoo
West Entrance: 5500 Phinney Ave. N, Seattle, WA 98103
South Entrance: 750 N 50th St, Seattle, WA 98103
www.zoo.org/wildlanterns
Click here to get tickets
- Dates/Times: Open nightly Nov. 11, 2022 – Jan. 22, 2023 | 4:00 – 9:00 pm.
- Cost: $25.95 – $34.95 per person (ages 2 & under are free).
- Promotions: Zoo members get 20% off tickets.
- Parking: $6 parking is available in all lots after 3:30 pm. Park by the West Entrance if you are purchasing your tickets in person—the South Gate (Hippo Lot) is only for those who already have tickets.
- Food: Refreshments are available at food kiosks throughout, plus the Pizza Corner at 1899 Grove, and Gather & Graze Café (with covered seating provided). You are also welcome to bring your own food & non-alcoholic beverages.
- Special Activities: Tianyu Cultural Performances in the PACCAR Auditorium, Magical Memories Marketplace, & up-close Ambassador Animals in Australasia. Sensory-Friendly Nights on 11/16, 12/13 & 1/12.
- Closures: Mondays (except for Dec. 19 & 26); Nov. 24, Dec. 24 & 25.
Image courtesy of zoo.org
But wait, there’s more…
Holiday theatrical & musical shows
“A Christmas Carol” at ACT Theatre
“The Nutracker” by Pacific Northwest Ballet
“Winter Brilliance” at Chihuly Garden and Glass
The Polar Express train ride at Mt. Rainier Railroad
Gingerbread Village at the Sheraton Grand Seattle
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
How’s the Market? Q3 2022 Real Estate Review
While still considered a seller’s market, our July-September home sale activity signaled the return of some much-needed balance. Seattle and Eastside home prices still posted year-over-year gains in Q3, but rising interest rates markedly slowed the pace of both listings and sales. Houses also stayed on the market longer than we saw during the frenzy earlier this year—the average Seattle home took 17 days to sell, while Eastside homes averaged 25 days to sell. Buyers have a great opportunity to negotiate better terms now with an eye out to refinance when interest rates come down in the future.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
There is a lot of good news in Seattle these days: Progress is being made in taking back downtown, the West Seattle Bridge is open AND real estate prices are UP year over year.
Transaction volume is down 35% across the city, which we can likely attribute to the volatility in interest rates, but listing volume is also down 10%. This is comforting! Supply and demand rules the market, and the last thing this balancing market needs is more inventory. We think this drop in seller enthusiasm is likely caused by the golden handcuffs of their historically low interest rates and refinance boom: even if your home isn’t meeting your needs these days, that 2.75% interest rate might be hard to give up.
Seattle’s average list/sold price ratio is 97%. This means if you listed your home for $1,000,000 you could expect to sell for $970,000 in Q3 of this year. Compare this with 82% on the Eastside. Seattle home sellers are more realistic and less affected by the price bloat of the last several years. We didn’t boom as hard, and we may not feel the impacts of a market balance as sharply either.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
While we’re finally seeing the numbers reflect what the market has been feeling since May, it’s not as dire as one might think. Sales volume has slowed 38% year over year (based on total transaction count). However, new listings are also down (3%) which means the market reaching its peak has not sparked a sell off. This should keep our new normal buzzing along at pace similar to 2018 and 2019. Great homes that are priced right will sell—21% of homes sold above asking price and 40% of homes sold in the first 10 days.
Median list price is down 6% while median sales price is down 14.5%, which means homeowners looking to sell on the Eastside now have some data points to help them with realistic expectations of how to find the market. Average days on market is 25, which is higher than it’s been since Q1 of 2020! This is still slightly under the 6-year average. Don’t be tempted to think that there is something wrong with a home just because it has been on the market for a month; there are a lot of quality homes ready for their new owners.
The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Given the broader local news, we might expect doom and gloom from Q3 stats—this expert sees lots of opportunity and much needed stabilization after the crazy COVID boom. While median prices have fallen 1% year over year, the average price per square foot is actually UP. What does this mean? Comparing a median with an average is always a little tricky, but this likely points to a slowdown in the sale of larger homes.
To me, the better signs of market predictability are the months supply of inventory for the quarter (about 6 weeks for both condos and single family) and the average days on market (18 for sf and 57 for condo). These are all relatively healthy benchmarks, even though they’re markedly higher than in previous quarters. This is what’s causing media to report doom and gloom: inventory is up sharply (there was ONE active listing at the end of Q4 2021 vs 44 at the end of Q3 2022) and pending sales are down (57 vs. 94 last year in the same time period). When you compare our current numbers to any time period outside of the last two years, we’re faring very well!
The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Condos remain the tortoise as opposed to the hare like residential markets of 2020-early 2022. Slow and steady will definitely win this race as the affordability of homeownership shrinks with rising interest rates. Looking at combined condo data (Eastside + Seattle), months supply of inventory is down to about 6 weeks from 2 months last quarter. Low months supply of inventory and low cumulative days on market (23) are two of the leading indicators of market health, and both are as low or lower as they’ve been in the recent past.
Condo prices are also holding strong with no change to the average $ per square foot in Seattle and an overall 5% rise in median sale price year over year. The Eastside tells an even slightly better story: a 9% rise in $ per square foot and a 6% rise in median sale price despite a 41% year-over-year drop in the number of transactions.
Keep rooting for the tortoise. This is a necessary niche in our marketplace. The first rung on the property ladder is condos again for the first time in a long time, and we really hope our Gen Z and Millennial buyers take the leap!
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 22’ of waterfront on an 11,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 172 feet in Medina on Lake Washington, which commanded a sales price of $17,800,000.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
Favorite Local Pumpkin Patches
Grab your boots, pack a thermos…it’s time to choose those perfect Halloween pumpkins! This year, why not explore a new town and make your pumpkin patch experience a true adventure? All of these farms are open every weekend in October, and most are open on weekdays too. Some even welcome your furry family members on a leash. Scroll down for the full scoop!
Eastside | North of Seattle | South of Seattle
Eastside
Fletcher Farm
Dog-friendly with a scavenger hunt, farm animal zoo, storybook trail, mini-golf, photo stations, and junior corn maze for the little ones. End of season Halloween Bash, too!
18712 SE May Valley Road | Issaquah
fletcherfarmevents@gmail.com
fletcherfarmissaquah.com
Jubilee Farm
Hay rides, food trucks, music, hay maze, & hot apple cider.
229 W Snoqualmie River Rd NE | Carnation
(425) 222-4558
jubileefarm.org
Novelty Hill Farm
Dog-friendly! Corn maze, farm animals, trike track, & games.
26617 NE 124th Street | Duvall
(425) 788-2416
noveltyhillfarm.com
Oxbow Farm & Conservation Center
Live music, scavenger hunt, hay rides, mini pumpkin decoration, climbing tractor, conservation tours, & apple slingshot.
10819 Carnation-Duvall Rd. NE | Carnation
(425) 788-1134
oxbow.org/oxtober
Remlinger Farms
25 rides & attractions for children (including a train, carousel, & mini roller-coaster!), pony rides, apple cannon, restaurant, & new brewery with 20 choices on tap.
32610 NE 32nd Street | Carnation, WA
(425) 451-8740
remlingerfarms.com
Serres Farm
Mini train rides, corn maze and a dazzling variety of specialty pumpkins.
20306 NE 50th St | Redmond, WA
(425) 868-3017
serresfarm.com/pumpkin-patch
Two Brothers Pumpkins at Game Haven Farm
Baby calves and an eerie number of well-attired scarecrows.
7110 310th Avenue NE | Carnation, WA
(425) 333-4313
facebook.com/twobrotherspumpkins
North of Seattle
Bailey Vegetables
Kettle corn, cider, U-pick apples, baked goods, and kids play area with hay run, farm trikes & sandbox.
12691 Springhetti Rd | Snohomish
(360) 568-8826
baileyveg.com/pumpkin-patch
Bob’s Corn & Pumpkin Farm
12-acre corn maze, 2 kids’ mazes, play barn, hay rides, trike track, & apple cannon. Fire pit rentals for private groups, too!
10917 Elliott Road | Snohomish
(360) 668-2506
bobscorn.com/pumpkins
Carleton Farm
5-acre corn maze, playground, paintball gallery, apple guns, hay rides, & kids’ bucket train.
630 Sunnyside Blvd SE | Lake Stevens, WA
(425) 343-4963
carletonfarm.com/fall-fun
Craven Farm
15-acre corn maze, kids maze, farm animals, mini golf, cow train, foosball, espresso, cider donuts, & scarecrow making. Fire pit rentals and special dog-friendly days, too!
13817 Short School Road | Snohomish
(360) 568-2601
cravenfarm.com/fall-festival
Fairbank Animal & Pumpkin Farm
Lots of baby animals, “corn maize maze,” hay tunnel, toy duck races, photo boards, & veggie garden.
15308 52nd Ave W | Edmonds
(425) 743-3694
fairbankfarm.com
Stocker Farms
30+ attractions including a giant jumping pillow, tire mountain, epic play area, zip line, corn maze, pumpkin cannon, & more. The farm’s evil twin, Stalker Farms, comes out at night.
8705 Marsh Rd | Snohomish
(360) 568-7391
stockerfarms.com
Swans Trail Farms
Washington State corn maze, kids corn maze, petting farm, wagon rides, big slides, zip lines, u-pick apple orchard & live duck races.
7301 Rivershore Rd | Snohomish
(425) 330-3084
swanstrailfarms.com
South of Seattle
Carpinito Brothers Corn Maze & Pumpkin Patch
Rubber duck races, hay slides, corn pit, farm animals, hay maze, & corn maze.
Pumpkin Patch: 27508 W Valley Hwy N | Kent
Farm Fun Yard: 6720 S 277th St | Kent
(253) 854-5692
carpinito.com
Maris Farms
Racing pigs & ducks, mega slide, corn maze, jump pillow, animals, zip lines, rides, plus the creepy “Haunted Woods” complete with zombies and homicidal maniacs.
25001 Sumner-Buckley Highway | Buckley
(253) 862-2848
marisfarms.com
Mosby Farms
Dog-friendly! Corn maze and fresh farm market.
3104 SE Auburn-Black Diamond Rd | Auburn
(253) 405-0711
mosbyfarm.com/pumpkinpatch
Spooner Farms
Corn maze, pumpkin sling shot, speedway, farm animals, caramel apples, & roasted corn.
9710 State Route 162 East | Puyallup
(253) 840-2059
spoonerberries.com
Thomasson Family Farm
Laser tag, corn maze, play barn, farm animals, slides, duck races, trike track, apple slingshot, and giant Jenga & Connect 4.
38223 236th Avenue SE | Enumclaw
(360) 802-0503
thomassonfarm.com
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022 Windermere Mercer Island
Your Fall Home Maintenance Checklist
A clever person solves a problem;
a wise person avoids it.
As the days shorten, you can mitigate many mid-winter headaches with some preemptive prep. Proper weatherizing can help protect your home from preventable damage, save money on energy costs, and, most importantly, keep you and your loved ones safe and warm throughout the winter season. Here is a useful checklist to manage your weatherization project. Setting aside some time on a couple of weekend days should be more than enough to knock this out. Scroll down for helpful tips and click here for a printable checklist!
1. Clean the Gutters
After all the leaves, pine cones, pine needles, and other autumnal debris have fallen, clear them out from your rain gutters. This will avoid gutter damage from ice or melted snow draining improperly. Even in warmer locales, gutter buildup & leakage can put undue stress on your roof and home. Make sure your downspouts are pointing away from your home’s foundation to prevent basement leaks and flooding.
2. Look at the Roof
Check for any damaged shingles, corroded flashing, or leaky vents that need to be repaired. When the first heavy rain comes after a long dry spell, check the underside of the roof for moisture on joints or insulation. Mark any spots that you find and then hire a roofing specialist to repair these leaks. If you wait until spots show up on your ceiling, insulation and sheet rock will have also been damaged and you could have a mold problem too. You can find tips on how to solve roof & gutter issues in this great article from http://FamilyHandyman.com.
3. Check the Siding
While the weather is still nice, look for any gaps or cracks and seal them with exterior caulk (here are some tips). You should also touch up any old or loose paint to ensure your home’s exterior has a weatherproof seal.
4. Trim Tree Limbs
If your property has large trees, check for loose branches and call someone to trim back any limbs that may fall in your yard, on your roof or even damage a window. Branches that touch your house and overhang your roof are convenient on-ramps for pests, so trim back branches so they’re at least four feet from the house.
5. Reverse Ceiling Fans
If you have ceilings fans in your home, there is a handy trick you can use to improve your home’s heating efficiency. By reversing the direction of your ceiling fan—running the blades in a clockwise direction—you’ll create a slight updraft, forcing warm air near the ceiling downward.
6. Weatherize Doors
If an exterior door doesn’t have a snug seal when closed, replace the weather stripping; self-adhesive foam stripping is much simpler to install than traditional vinyl stripping but has a shorter lifespan. If there is a gap under the door (which can happen over time as a house settles), you may need to realign the door and replace the vinyl door bottom and/or door sweep.
7. Service the Furnace
Preventative maintenance is crucial for your home’s heating and air-conditioning systems. Fall is a smart time to have your systems checked and tuned up. Don’t wait for extreme temperatures to arrive, when service companies are slammed with emergency calls. Replace filters if you use a furnace and clear out any vents and ducts that carry heat through them. If you have baseboard heaters, wipe them of dust and remove any debris that might catch fire.
8. Check the Chimney
Make sure to have chimneys and air vents inspected and cleaned early in the season if you are planning on warming your home with a wood-burning source. When your fireplace is not in use, make sure to close the damper—some resources estimate an open damper can increase energy consumption by as much as 30%, increasing your bill about $200.
9. Test Safety Devices
Most house fires happen in the fall and winter, with holiday cooking and heating systems both being common causes. Deadly carbon monoxide can also be released by furnaces, stoves, fireplaces, and space heaters. Protect your household by replacing any smoke detectors and carbon monoxide monitors as needed. Check the indicators on your fire extinguishers to make sure they’re still good (or install them if you don’t have them—a Class B extinguisher for the kitchen is a good place to start, but you might need more according to this guide).
10. Winterize Plumbing
Make sure any pipes in unheated spaces—such as the crawl space, basement, or garage—are properly insulated to prevent freezing and bursts. Disconnect hoses and install hose bib covers on all outdoor faucets. Winterize your in-ground sprinkler system…here’s a great wikiHow article with 3 different methods.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022 Windermere Mercer Island.
Adapted from articles that originally appeared on the Windermere blog December 21, 2020, by Sandy Dodge; October 7th, 2019 by Meaghan McGlynn; and September 16, 2016 by Windermere Staff.
2022 Football Schedules, Recipes & Tips…
Are you ready for some football? Fall is just around the corner and tickets are on sale now for 12s ready to cheer on a new era of promising rookies, as well as UW & WSU fans ready to show their college spirit. Scroll down for printable schedules, tailgating hacks (including how to pack the perfect cooler!), our favorite gameday recipes, and printable bingo cards to keep even the youngest fans entertained…
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022 Windermere Mercer Island
Kicks for Kids Shoe Drive August 8-19
Help us give kids the confidence they need to start the school year right! Windermere Mercer Island invites you to participate in our Kicks for Kids back-to-school sneaker drive. It connects low-income youth in our local communities with new shoes for the upcoming school year. Between August 8th and 19th, we’ll be accepting donations two ways:
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Bring new or gently used sneakers (toddler/youth sizes) to my office at 2737 77th Ave SE, Ste. 100, Mercer Island. We’ll enter your name into a raffle for a delectable prize from Island Treats, and we’ll also match the first 100 pairs of shoes donated!
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Shop from our Amazon Wishlist.
This year, we’re partnering once again with the Eastside Baby Corner, an amazing organization that helps kids thrive by providing resources and essentials with their 70+ partner agencies—many of which are school districts.
Help us make sure every child has a new pair of shoes for school!
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022 Windermere Mercer Island
How’s the Market? Q2 Real Estate Review
While Seattle and the Eastside are still considered a seller’s market, buyers experienced some much-needed relief in the second quarter with new listings outpacing the number of homes sold. Rising interest rates have initiated a shift toward a more balanced market. Opportunities abound for both sellers (who are still seeing higher sales prices than this time last year) and buyers (who finally have some breathing room to negotiate price and contingencies). We expect this shift to continue with a stabilization of home prices rather than the steep upward trajectory we saw last year.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
The Seattle real estate market for single family homes is holding steady despite rising interest rates and slowdowns elsewhere in King County! The median sale price is up 9% since the end of 2021 (from $910,000 to $1,000,000). Year over year, the median price rose from $895,000 in Q2 2021 to $1,000,000 in Q2 2022 (also roughly 12%).
Anecdotally, we believe that Seattle continues to gain ground because it remains affordable when compared to the cities and neighborhoods to the east. Eastside median prices rose so sharply over the last two years that it left Seattle “in the dust” as the market leader of the region. As we know, slow and steady wins the race, though there is no way to know yet if this particular race is a marathon or a sprint.
Interest rates nearly doubled in Q2, though that seems to leave Seattle home shoppers undeterred. 86% of the sales in Q2 sold in the first 10 days at an average of 110% of list price.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
Relief has finally come to home shoppers on the Eastside! New listings are up 13% year over year. Further, there has been a slide in total number of sales, down 18% year over year. This means there are more choices for anyone who is in the market to buy a home. Price gains remain steady for now, up 22% over Q2 of 2021. This is likely riding the wave of growth in late 2021 and early 2022, but with the higher supply and lower demand this is may be a trend that tapers off in the near future.
Average price per square foot saw its first quarterly drop since Q2 of 2019, down from $713 in Q1 to $685. The overall median price fell from a high of $1,625,000 in Q1 to $1,610,000 in Q2. Even more exciting for home buyers is that (when in competition) the list to sales price ratio is 109%— down from 119% in Q1.
If you’ve thought about selling your home, it’s still a great time. When a home is prepared well and priced right shoppers pay attention. Of the 2177 homes sold in Q2, 84% of those sold in the first 10 days. This isn’t far off of the 90% that was posted in Q1. It is harder to get noticed today than in recent memory—this is where choosing a true professional to partner with is so important! Windermere brokers have their fingers on the pulse and know how to make you stand out in a crowd!
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Mercer Island continues to be a fabulous place to be a homeowner. Median prices and price per square foot both saw increases over Q1 2022 numbers (6.5% and 5% respectively). Anecdotally, there has been a pace change. We don’t expect that to reflect in the stats until Q3, and even then the numbers are likely to be favorable as we gained so much ground in Q1 of this year.
The data that supports what we’re all feeling can be found in the relationship between number of new listings and number of homes sold. In Q2, there were 116 new listings and 84 sales compared to the same period in 2021 when we had 124 new listings and 102 sales. So, if you’re feeling like inventory is “up,” it’s not because more homeowners are deciding to sell but rather it appears that demand is down. Another way to look at this is that we sold 82% of the active inventory in spring of 2021 but only 72% in 2022. These are healthy numbers but it’s enough of a drop for us to feel it.
If you’re a buyer trying to break in to the Mercer Island market, it’s getting easier. 83% of the 116 new listings sold within the first 10 days for an average of 111% of the asking price. This is the most favorable these numbers have been since 2019. Working with a local pro will be your biggest advantage to determine which homes will sell at a premium and how to get the best deal!
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Condo average prices have seen their biggest quarterly rise since Q3 of 2016! As home shoppers adjust expectations amidst rising interest rates, the affordability offered by condos is an exciting place to turn. We are thrilled to see condos be a viable option as we recover from the pandemic and buyers return to more densely populated areas.
North Seattle (up 34%) and Capitol Hill (up 10%) are bright spots in the total number of condos sold year over year for Seattle. This makes perfect sense as both areas offer access to our growing light rail system and new retail opportunities that didn’t exist pre-pandemic. Seattle’s total sales year over year remained flat, literally zero, which means these two neighborhoods carried the entire city.
The same data point on the Eastside saw the entire area’s total number of sales fall 27% year over year. West Bellevue (down 51%) and Mercer Island (down 38%) topped the list. Meanwhile, prices on the Eastside are up an average of 20%.
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
Waterfront season is heating up. As expected, inventory is up from Q1 (32 total sales in Q2 v 17 in Q1), but what hasn’t changed is an average of only 6 listings for sale at any one time across all shorelines! Of all of the waterfront shorelines, Mercer Island boasted the lowest days on market with an average of just THREE days. Seattle had the highest days on market, with an average of 41 days.
The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 25’ of waterfront on a 17,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 177 feet in Issaquah on Lake Sammamish, which commanded a sales price of $11,600,000.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
10 Tips for Sustainable Gardening
Sunny days are finally here, the flowers are in bloom, and the timing is perfect to give your garden some love. Having a healthy garden is one of the best ways to create a sustainable home and reduce your household’s carbon footprint. Below are some eco-friendly tips that will help to make your garden even more sustainable…
1. Compost Your Waste
Composting, which puts your natural waste to good use, is the cornerstone of any sustainable garden. All grass clippings, dead leaves, plants, flowers, and the like are rich in nutrients. By composting, you provide your garden with a natural fertilizer, free of contaminants. Not only will this provide nourishment, but it will also help to produce healthier and tastier food. Here’s how to do it.
2. Try Mulching
If having a sustainable garden is your goal, it’s important to treat your soil with care. Laying down a couple of inches of mulch in mid- to late spring (think: grass clippings, wood chips or chopped leaves) enriches the soil and ensures it’s as healthy as can be. Mulch also conserves soil moisture, reduces weed growth and naturally moderates the temperature of the soil. You can cover either bare dirt or freshly planted food and flowers. Find more tips here.
3. Optimize Your Garden Design
It’s natural to want to accentuate the beauty of your garden when designing it, but the sustainable gardener will prioritize giving plants what they need. Take into consideration which plants need direct access to sunlight, which need the most space in the garden, and any special requirements a plant may need to inhabit optimal growing conditions.
Companion planting (choosing plants that benefit each other) will attract pollinators and deter pests. For example, peas & beans feed the soil with nitrogen, and nasturtiums can lure aphids away from other plants. Plant basil and tomatoes together, too–basil boosts the flavor of the tomatoes while scaring away pests.
4. Use Natural Weed Killers
One of the pillars of organic gardening is to reduce the use of chemicals whenever and wherever possible. Preventing weeds naturally by using landscape cloth, mulch or corn gluten meal is a great way to start. You can also make your own DIY weed killer from household items like vinegar or even boiling water as an effective substitute for harmful, chemical-based weed killers. Whichever method you choose, it’s important to weed by hand often.
5. Water Wisely
Substantial watering is critical to keeping your garden healthy, but overwatering is a common practice and leads to an unsustainable garden. Research the amount of water your plants and flowers need to make sure you aren’t overwatering. In our rainy climate, rain barrels are a useful tool as their function is to catch and conserve the water from your downspouts. Here’s a charming Canadian video on how to make and install a rain barrel.
6. Repurpose Poop
It’s time to get down and dirty. For a more sustainable garden and even healthier soil, consider adding animal manure. Chicken, sheep, and cow manure are all popular choices. Rich in nutrients, it can be used both as a fertilizer and as a soil conditioner. Make sure the manure you purchase is free of pathogens and ask about the recommended window of time from application to harvest before you begin using it.
7. Go Local
Planting natively is a fast ticket to sustainable gardening. Native plants are innately acclimated to local climate conditions, making them easier to grow and maintain. Native plants often require less water to grow due to their familiarity with the soil and rainfall in your region, which cuts down on your garden’s total water intake.
8. Collect Dried Seeds
YES, you can save your seeds and sow them next year. Wait until the seed is fully ripe before you collect it. It’s important to gather seeds when the weather is dry and to store them in a dry place. To produce healthy plants in the future, the seed must be completely dry. Here are some great tips on collecting & storing seeds.
9. Stop Garden Slugs
Slugs love wreaking havoc on gardens, eating through leaves and fruit, leaving a trail of destruction. Fortunately, there are also many things they hate…coffee grounds, for example. Chickens. Rosemary. Fennel. Drowning in beer traps. Check out these awesome tricks for making eco-friendly slug repellant…you can use these to replace traditional slug baits, which contain chemicals that are highly toxic to other animals.
10. Replace Your Gas Mower
How else can you reduce your garden’s carbon footprint? Replace your gas mower with a more sustainable alternative. Electric mowers and push mowers are functional and more eco-friendly replacements. They’re also quieter and you never have to mess with those stinky gas cans again. For added sustainability, consider replacing your other gas-powered equipment, such as trimmers and leaf blowers.
Pssst…Need a bigger yard for the garden of your dreams? I can help with that.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
2737 77th Ave SE, Mercer Island, WA 98040 | (206) 232-0446
mercerisland@windermere.com
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island.
Adapted from an article that originally appeared on the Windermere blog April 14th, 2021. Written by: Sandy Dodge.
